Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
