Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
