War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's junta is conducting a phased election over the coming weeks.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".

Frank Foley
Frank Foley

A financial analyst with over 15 years of experience in Nordic markets, specializing in sustainable investments and economic forecasting.